The Impact of Electric Vehicles on Lubricants to 2029

Electric vehicles currently have a modest 2% share of the global automotive market; however, the split by country is not as many would expect, with China having more electric vehicles than the rest of the world put together.

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Product detail
Product type: Market report
Date of publication: 19 Feb 2019
Product format: Digital, Hard Copy
  • This study analyses and forecasts how the ongoing move to electric vehicles will impact requirements and demand for lubricants and other fluids in the automotive industry to 2029. 
  • Based on extensive industry research, including an in-depth survey of industry stakeholders, the report scores and ranks a wide range of trends associated with the transition to electric vehicles. 
  • The study also looks at the ability of the internal combustion engine to resist the growth of electric vehicles and the likely position the oil industry and regulators might take.   

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Our exclusive content:

  • Scoring and ranking of the key trends and drivers influencing the uptake of electric vehicles
  • Future outlook on demand for lubricants and other fluids in the automotive industry affected by the transition to electric vehicles
  • Over 100 tables and figures displaying the effect of electric vehicles on the lubricants market for the next 10 years.

What methodology is used? 

The Impact of Electric Vehicles on Lubricants to 2029 is based on extensive industry research, including an in-depth survey of industry stakeholders to score and rank the major electric vehicle trends and their impact on the lubricant market. This is supplemented by a comprehensive programme of secondary research including company reports and market information from across the lubricants and automotive supply chains, providing a unique depth of information and analysis.   

What will you discover? 

  • Comprehensive scoring and ranking of a variety of electric vehicle-related trends based on their forecast impact on lubricants and other fluids in the automotive industry 
  • In-depth analysis of regional differences and scenarios, as well as possible geographic barriers 
  • Calculations of global volumes of automotive lubricants and fluids and an overview of technical changes that may be required 
  • Critical analysis of the key drivers influencing the adoption of electric vehicles, including the effects of legislation, infrastructure, technology, cost and behaviour.   

Who should buy this report? 

  • Electric vehicle component suppliers 
  • Automotive manufacturers 
  • Lubricant raw material suppliers 
  • Lubricant manufacturers 
  • Regulatory and legislative bodies 
  • Industry consultants and analysts. 

Table of Contents

Executive summary 

Introduction and methodology 

  • Introduction 
  • Scope 
  • Methodology 
  • Definitions 
  • Glossary of terms 

Electric vehicle drivers and trends in the lubricants market 

  • Climate change stabilisation 
  • Air pollution reduction 
  • Regional transport infrastructure development 
    • Electric vehicle types 
    • Drivers of the electric vehicles market 
    • Electric vehicle costs 
    • Battery development 
    • Electricity supply and infrastructure 
    • Vehicle size trends 
    • Autonomous vehicles 
    • Big Oil’s response 
    • Higher performance lubricants 

Ranking of electric vehicle trends and their impact on the lubricant market 

  • Overview 
  • Method of scoring and ranking 
  • Forecast for global vehicle fleet 
  • Forecast of global EV fleet 
  • Forecast of global lubricant market 
  • Impact assessments on lubricant market 

Replacement of the internal combustion engine, and its impact on the lubricants market to 2029 

  • Overview 
  • Historical vehicle growth 
  • Electric vehicle population to meet Paris Agreement targets 
  • Paris agreement targets and their impact on the lubricant market 
  • Impact on lubricants markets 

New vehicle designs and components, and their impact on the lubricants markets: 2029 scenario 

  • Overview 
  • Changes in the Internal combustion engine vehicle market 
  • Vehicle trends 
  • Lubricant trends 
  • Electric vehicle development 
  • Impact on lubricants markets 

Environmental regulations and requirements, and their impact on lubricants markets: 2029 scenario 

  • Overview 
  • Changes to the environment 
  • Regional approaches to climate change 
  • Impact of more ambitious climate change targets 
  • Impact on lubricants markets 

Changing vehicle cost models and their impact on lubricants markets: 2029 scenario 

  • Overview 
  • Cost comparison ICE versus EVs 
  • Internal combustion engine cost reduction possibilities 
  • Reaction of Big Oil 
  • Electric vehicle cost reduction opportunities 
  • Hybrids and hydrogen fuel cells 
  • Impact on lubricants markets 

New e-mobility concepts and their impact on lubricants markets: 2029 scenario 

  • Overview 
  • Power generating capacity and its influence on EV growth 
  • EV charging infrastructure – limiting EV growth 
  • Autonomous vehicles 
  • The desire for larger vehicles 
  • Impact on lubricants markets 

Opportunities and future outlook 

Tables and Figures

  • Historical growth in concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere 
  • Historical land temperature development 
  • Cumulative loss of Antarctic ice sheet 
  • Historical sea level rise since 1993 
  • US carbon dioxide emissions by application 
  • US methane emissions by application 
  • US nitrogen dioxide emissions by application 
  • US fluorinated compounds emissions by application 
  • Recent historical light vehicle sales split by region 
  • Developing market dynamics 
  • Forecast on total light vehicle market size for developed markets to 2029 
  • Forecast on total light vehicle market size for medium developed markets to 2029 
  • Forecast on total light vehicle market size for developing markets to 2029 
  • Forecast on electric vehicles market size for developed markets to 2029 
  • Forecast on electric vehicles market size for medium developed markets to 2029 
  • Forecast on electric vehicles market size for developing markets to 2029 
  • Forecast on autonomous vehicles impact for global markets to 2029 
  • Forecast on total global market split by ICE and EV to 2029 
  • Sensitivity on EV evolution influenced by Chinese volume manufacturing strategy to 2029 
  • Forecast on total global market for increasing larger vehicles market share to 2029 
  • Evolution of global engine oil market volumes to 2029 
  • Evolution of global brake fluid market volumes to 2029 
  • Evolution of global coolant market by volume to 2029 
  • Evolution of global transmission market volume to 2029 
  • Volumes of automotive lubricants by region, by type, to 2029 
  • Global view of light vehicles 
  • Global light vehicle sales history 
  • New passenger car sales highlighting the importance of China 
  • Car ownership by region and historic growth rate 
  • EV vehicle population required to meet the Paris Agreement target 
  • Global EVs utilised globally, split by country 
  • Projection of number of light vehicles globally in millions of units 
  • Projection of EVs in the global automotive population 
  • Regional growth of global new vehicle population by year 
  • Global evolution of the engine oil market to 2030 – base case 
  • Global evolution of the brake fluid market – base case 
  • Global evolution of the transmission oil market – base case 
  • Global evolution of automotive coolant market 
  • Historical levels of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere for the last 400,000 years 
  • 2012 greenhouse gas emissions as a percent of total emissions by country 
  • 2017 change in carbon dioxide emissions by major countries 
  • Global causes of climate change 
  • GHG emissions globally by economic sector 
  • Number of EVs to meet various climate change targets 
  • Proportion of EVs to ICEs to meet a +1.5°C climate temperature increase 
  • Weight of different material in a typical vehicle 
  • 2016 new electrical power installation capacity by fuel type 
  • Manufacturer vehicle size changes, 2008-15 
  • 2016 global use of crude oil by application 
  • Refining margins are independent from the crude oil price 
  • 2018 cost build for automotive fuels in the UK market 
  • Price of gasoline in selected countries 
  • Development of battery materials 
  • Improvement on charge density lithium ion batteries 
  • Production cost evolution EV batteries 
  • Diagram of hydrogen fuel cell 
  • 2016 new electrical power installation capacity by fuel type 
  • Global renewable generating capacity to 2022 
  • Global electricity capacity and its ability to support EV growth 
  • China’s commitment to increased renewable power 
  • Price evolution of solar panels 
  • Various views of US EV growth to 2025 
  • Charging points and the limit on EV growth in the US 
  • Norwegian BEV charging behaviour 
  • Norwegian hybrid charging behaviour 
  • Timeline for evolution of autonomous vehicles 
  • Timeline for revolutionary autonomous vehicles 
  • US Greenhous gas production 
  • Major concerns of the public impacting EV uptake 
  • Assessment of the issues that will impact the global automotive lubricant markets to 2029 
  • Growth forecasts for EVs 
  • Current share of EVs by region (%) 
  • Impact of ICE cost reduction strategies 
  • Impact of fuel cost impact versus electricity generation 
  • Impact of fuel taxation on ICEs resisting EV growth 
  • Impact of legislation on EV growth 
  • Impact of regional EV vs ICE adoption 
  • Analysis of timeline on battery development issues 
  • Issues impacting the engine oil market 
  • Issues impacting brake fluid market 
  • Issues impacting transmission oil market 
  • Issues impacting coolant market 
  • Impact of EVs on lubricant supply chain 
  • Car ownership as a percentage of population 2015 
  • OEM commitments to EV manufacturing announcements 
  • Average fill capacities of various types of automobiles 
  • Densities of the major automotive fluids 
  • Impact of EV drivers on global lubricant market 
  • Important climate change metrics 
  • Commitments made by largest GHG producers to the Paris Agreement 
  • Global performance on GHG reduction in recent years 
  • EU Member State targets on renewable power and GHG reduction 
  • Impact of legislation on the automotive lubricant market 
  • Energy losses in ICE vehicles 
  • Vehicle lightweighting strategies 
  • Comparison of appeal of EVs versus ICE 
  • Advantages and disadvantages of various EV battery technologies 
  • Price comparison of two VW models 
  • Battery cost reduction strategies and impact 
  • Advantages and disadvantages of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle versus BEV 
  • Impact of vehicle costs on automotive lubricants market 
  • Impact of behaviour on the automotive lubricants market